OBS Report: Will Nuba Mountains Be Sudan’s Next Genocide?

An Operation Broken Silence Report

By Mark Christopher Hackett

The Nuba Mountains region of Sudan is often forgotten by most of those working towards peace in Sudan. A former frontline region in Sudan’s 20 year north-south civil war, the Nuba Mountains region remains in an extremely precarious spot as due to it’s location, political, ethnic, and religious situation.

The area is part of northern Sudan’s Southern Kordofan State, but as during the war, remains politically dominated by the southern-led Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). The SPLM’s troops have already pulled out of the region under the auspices of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA,) but  some units remain partnered with government soldiers for joint security purposes.

During the devastating civil war, the Nuba population suffered aerial bombardment, isolation, shortages, land expropriation and forced population movements, according to international human rights groups. The region is also one of the few areas where Christians, Muslims, and traditional believers live in a tense, but still somewhat peaceful coexistence.

Brief Background

The Nuba Mountains region is predominantly farmland and green uplands that has very little infrastructure. Upwards of one million people live in the region and did so for years in peace and harmony.

When civil war between north and south began, SPLA troops advanced into the mountains and held them for the majority of the war, as government forces often times remained in the larger towns on the edges of the mountains. The two sides constantly clashed, and even though SPLM soldiers were often times poorly supplied, they usually succeeded in repulsing government incursions. Today, even though the government is technically in charge of the area, SPLM politics remains powerful among large swaths of the Nuba people.

A Potentially Deadly Issue

The Nuba Mountains is one of the “three areas” referred to as potentially explosive spots between north and south. The region is a transitional, contested-zone which straddles the north and south’s deep military, religious, and political fault line.

Since political support for the SPLM remains strong throughout the region, the Nuba people fear that if the south secedes they will be left as an isolated minority in northern territory. As far as ethnicity goes, the people of the Nuba Mountains usually identify more closely with the “African” southerners than the northern “Arabs,” often times an explosive in Sudan. This means little if zero protection from the genocide-driven regime in Khartoum, as well as being on the front lines of future conflict between north and south. Even if upcoming national elections and the independence referendum go smoothly, there will be a high possibility of retaliation against SPLM supporters in Nuba.

This is a potentially deadly issue for Sudan. Nearly all international focus is on the southern provinces and Darfur, and even if the future bodes well for both of these areas, any military action in the Nuba region could reignite conflict elsewhere and undo any hard work and achievements up to that point. In short, Nuba is just as important as Darfur, the southern provinces, and Sudan as an entirety.

A study completed in March 2009, entitled Losing Hope by the Washington-based National Democratic Institute (NDI), also noted:

“They describe the conflict as a fight over land and grazing rights. The Nuba argue that Arabs are armed [while the Nuba are not], that Arab traditional leaders are not neutral, and that the central government is behind much of the violence…Arab participants say that it is the Nuba who are the instigators, and that they are responsible for the violence and theft in the region….The scale of the current conflict in Southern Kordofan is such that many participants believe the state is close to a return to general, state-wide war.”

How Can the International Community Ensure Peace for All Sudanese?

With the new U.S. foreign policy towards Sudan finally released, though large parts still remain classified and unplanned, it is absolutely critical that areas such as the Nuba mountains are included into the strategies and peace building initiatives currently underway under the auspices of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between north and south, as well as any future peace processes between Darfur and Khartoum. Failure to do so may result in a new genocide that could reignite other regions of Sudan as well. In the case between north and south, if the south secedes from the north, it could mean full-scale war.

US Special Envoy to Sudan Scott Gration recently mentioned during the AskUS discussion that part of the new White House strategy towards bringing stability, peace, and justice to Sudan is to get representatives involved from the civilian population as well. This is a good thing to say but it needs to be implemented immediately, and not just in Darfur and throughout the south, but also in the Nuba region.

There is also still to consider that the United States has not given a clear-cut definition of what it will do if the government continues to promote violence ahead of peace, fair elections, and a fair referendum vote. If peace efforts fail and if genocide begins in any part of the several flashpoint regions across Sudan, how far will the US go to end the bloodshed? Special Envoy Gration stated that pressures would be put into place if this happened, but what pressures? Will it just be more sanctions or will the United States and it’s allies resort to military force if necessary? If military force is the ultimate “pressure and stick” what are the specifics on how, when, and where it will be applied?

At the end of the day one has to look at the multiple issues facing Sudan in an honest light. The current government has shown no qualms of using human right’s abuses, genocide, and it’s proxy Arab militias in order to remain in power. There is a very high likelihood that this will happen again, if evidence does not point to that yet already. The current, government-backed destabilization campaign underway in the south, the growing insecurity in Darfur, and the extremely high-tensions in flashpoint areas such as the Nuba Mountains point to the honest truth: genocide is far from departing from Sudan, and the world may not have even come close to witnessing the worst of the violence that could be in Sudan’s future.

The key to bringing peace to all of Sudan is to get a representative from all parties, whether they be political, military, ethnical, or religious to the peace table. From what we know of the still vague, new US foreign policy towards Sudan, this seems to be the idea; however, implementation of this highly needed, specific tactic within the strategy remains the real key and remains the first major step. The sooner it is implemented the better.

Other Issues That Need to Be Addressed

The widespread, major distrust of Darfuris, southerners, and the flashpoint areas of the government needs to be addressed. Wrapped up in this issue remains two of the biggest questions facing Sudan:

• When will the war criminals still working in the government be brought to justice?
• How can the US and the international community protect these communities as they attempt to participate in peace talks, elections, and the referendum?

The new US foreign policy as yet to answer either one of these questions within this issue of distrust, all of it being well-earned distrust. In fact, US Special Envoy did not mention justice once during the AskUS online town hall. This is an issue that must be addressed, because if the current government remains in power after elections, whether because they won or rigged the polling counts, the distrust will still be there and likely lead rebel groups in Darfur back to war and tensions continuing to rise in the south and flashpoint areas.

Justice must be one of  the first steps, otherwise there will be increasing opportunity for failure throughout the election, referendum, and aftermath. Does the Obama administration really believe that, even if elections are free and fair and the current regime remains in power, those who have been subjected to government-backed genocides will simply become supportive of the government?

This is highly unlikely, and history points to the fact that victims of genocide and mass atrocities, as well as the international community, rarely allow genocidaires to go unpunished. Multiple tribunals are still ongoing around the world in a bid for justice for Rwanda, Cambodia, Sierra leone, and the former Yugoslavia. The rebel groups of Darfur were formed in response to government-led human right’s violations and the government oppression of black Africans in favor of Arabs. Both victims, protectors, and justice seekers react to genocide, and often times if this is not done in a fair court system it leads to more killing and death.

This is why justice must be one of the first steps, because if certain elements of the current regime remain in power after elections it is highly unlikely the victimized of Sudan will be silent in the face of that. Let us also not forget that the rebel groups of Darfur, the southern army, and large parts of the civilian population remain armed, making this need for justice now even more important because the tools are already in place to seek justice the wrong way. In fact, the rebel groups in Darfur began rebelling because of the lack of justice in Sudan.

The new US foreign policy must include the implementation of these tactics and strategies if peace is to be achieved for all of Sudan, places often forgotten by the world like the Nuba Mountains protected, and stability for the region as a whole put into place.

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Photo courtesy of EHistory.